Page 18 - Malaysia Marine & Offshore Industries Directory 2019/2020
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                 Editorial   PeTronas acTiviTy ouTlook   Petronas expects a better outlook in 2019 for key segments in the upstream O&G sector. This can be gleaned from its 2019-2021 Petronas Activity Outlook (PAO) report published in December 2018, compared with its 2018-2020 PAO report’s projections. It is more positive on its expectations for the drilling segment, going by the expected number of jack-up rigs of between 16 and 19 required for the three-year period, which is almost double the projection of between six and 10 published in the previous year. Another highlight is the much better outlook for marine vessels, on the back of an expected pickup in drilling activities in the period. Petronas increased the expected number of vessels required by the Malaysian upstream sector by an average of about 20 vessels across the board for the three-year period - comprising Anchor Handling Tug Supply (AHTS), Platform Supply Vessels and Straight Supply Vessels (PSVs & SSVs) as well as Fast Crew Boats (FCBs). Outlook for carbon steel line pipes has also been tweaked upwards for 2019, with growing prospects seen, whereby jobs appear to be spreading into 2020 and 2021 as well, compared with more expected uncertainties for the segment in the previous report. Concurrently, the activity outlook for pipeline installations followed a similar growth projection into 2021, although the outlook for the rest of the offshore installation segment is generally mixed. Based on the report, flexible pipes will see a higher take-up of 24 - 26 kilometres (km) in 2019, as will corrosion-resistant alloy line pipes, which will increase to 25 - 30km in 2020. Compared with the previous report, Petronas also increased slightly the expected man-hours for hook-up and commissioning activities for the whole three-year period, as with the maintenance, construction and modification works. Players can also expect more decommissioning activities in the offshore upstream segment, which is an activity to restore a previously producing site to a safe and environmentally stable condition. It comprises well abandonment to prepare a well to be closed permanently and upstream facilities decommissioning once they reach the end of their production life cycle or when there is insufficient hydrocarbon to make production activities commercially viable. Particularly on well abandonment activities, Petronas projected those to involve around 50 wells in 2019, followed by around 40 wells in 2020 and around 60 in 2021. According to the report, decommissioning activities are expected to intensify as considerable assets have been operating beyond 40 years. Among these aged assets are some 11% of 353 offshore platforms, 8% of 10,235km worth of pipelines and 11% of 3,935 well strings. On the downstream sector, Petronas has increased the number of expected plant turnaround activities in 2019, with projected man-hours more than doubling to 8.1 million from the previous projection of 3.5 million. Turnaround activities, however, are expected to slow in 2020, before recovering the year after.  14 

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